Our latest analysis focuses on interest rate expectations and the Federal Reserve's influence on short-term rates through the Federal Funds Rate, which dictates the overnight lending rate between banks. We examine recent shifts in these expectations and analyze the market's subsequent reactions. Furthermore, our analysis provides a current assessment of vital economic indicators and model outputs, shedding light on the prevailing strengths and vulnerabilities in the current economic scenario.
This month's economic analysis focuses on corporate bond spreads, their measurement, and the implications they carry for forecasting economic growth and volatility in U.S. equity markets. We delve into the dynamics of these spreads, drawing parallels to historical patterns and assessing their potential impact on predictions for economic performance. Additionally, our analysis offers an up-to-date evaluation of key economic indicators and economic model output, providing insights into the existing strengths and weaknesses within the current economic landscape.
In our latest economic analysis for this month, we explore the recent movements in interest rates across different maturity periods. We investigate this shift in light of prior occurrences of yield curve inversions and examine its potential impact on our forecast for economic performance. Furthermore, we delve into how these rate adjustments might be influencing the perspectives of Federal Reserve officials concerning the potential for future interest rate hikes. Additionally, we provide an up-to-date assessment of leading economic indicators, offering insights into areas of both strength and weakness within the current economic landscape.
In this month's economic analysis, we shift our attention to the patterns observed in a selection of commodity prices and explore their impact on both economic expansion and inflationary forces. We delve into the insights provided by the RQA Economic Model and the implications of leading indicators for short-term economic growth. Additionally, we provide an update on the recent actions and statements of the Federal Reserve and their potential implications for the direction of interest rates.
This month's economic data spotlight focuses on examining the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, also known as PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data, for both the manufacturing and services sectors. It specifically explores recent shifts in trends and the significance of variations within this data in offering valuable insights into the broader economic landscape. We provide an update to the near-term economic forecast and touch on where we may be heading from an economic quadrant perspective.
In this July's economic data spotlight, we take a look at the Federal Funds Rate (“Fed Funds Rate”), recent changes in this key interest rate and how the market is forecasting rates going forward. We update the economic growth model and leading economic indicator set to see where positive economic shifts are occurring. Lastly, we explore where the economy sits today and where we may be migrating to from a growth / inflation quadrant perspective.
In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the S&P 500 index and how to use it as a leading economic indicator. Moreover, we compare the latest S&P 500 signals to those being conveyed by the RQA economic model to seek insights into where the broader market might be positioning as compared to a more comprehensive compilation of leading economic data. Lastly, we review our indicator heatmap to check the temperature from the latest round of economic data and discuss the most recent actions and narrative from the Federal Reserve.
In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a brief look the Consumer Price Index (CPI), its short-term and long-term trends, where the U.S. sits within the inflation / deflation spectrum, and what this could mean for the current economic picture. In addition, we get a fresh snapshot from the RQA Economic Forecast Model and check on what the leading fundamental economic data is suggesting from a growth perspective.
In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the common U.S. money supply measure, M2, its historical trends, and what it could be signaling with regards to overall financial liquidity conditions in the broader economy. In addition, we take a look at the output from the RQA Economic Forecast Model to get a current read on where the U.S. economy sits from a growth perspective .
