In our latest post, we dive into the mechanics behind the Santa Claus Rally and what drives year-end market trends. We also take a closer look at how the markets are reacting to the election, along with the latest economic data and insights from RQA’s forecast model to gauge where near-term growth is headed.

With the 2024 presidential election approaching and markets closely watching each development, our latest update dives into how election cycles historically impact equity markets and what current dynamics may mean for investors. We analyze pre- and post-election S&P 500 performance, examine volatility trends through the VIX, and consider the implications of rising interest rates and bond market volatility, as measured by the MOVE Index. RQA’s Economic Forecast Model is also showing signs of positive stabilization, but with the election adding uncertainty, volatility remains a key factor in the near-term outlook.

The Federal Reserve has initiated its rate-cut cycle with a 50 basis point reduction, and markets are adjusting accordingly. In our latest update, we analyze how this shift is impacting risk assets, explore the broader economic outlook, and examine the implications of further rate cuts. RQA's Economic Forecast Model has shown its first positive shift in months, signaling potential stabilization, but volatility remains a key factor moving forward.

This month's economic update shifts our focus to the VIX, often referred to as the equity market's fear gauge. We delve into historical trends, explain how to derive implied market moves from the VIX, and explore its relationship with broader equity market shifts. In addition, we incorporate the latest updates from the Fed and insights from our internal economic growth forecast. Our analysis is framed within the broader economic quadrant framework, which evaluates shifts in growth and inflation dynamics.

This month’s economic update focuses on the U.S. labor market, key supply and demand metrics, and recent trends in the data. As we approach the potential for a reduction in the key interest rate, we provide an updated analysis from the RQA economic model, offering insights into near-term growth prospects and the current economic regime. Additionally, we review the latest developments in growth and inflation and examine our position within the economic quadrant analysis.

This month's economic update spotlights U.S. equity concentration risk, exploring current levels and their future implications. We examine how the dominance of a few large companies is shaping the broader market and its impact on investors. Additionally, we provide an updated analysis from the RQA economic model, offering insights into near-term growth prospects and the current economic regime. We also review the latest updates from the Federal Reserve and provide an overview of our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.

This month's insights explore expectations around U.S. inflation and intuitive ways to assess near-term estimates based on market-implied methods. We examine these methods historically and analyze what they may suggest today. Additionally, we review the latest model update concerning the current state of the U.S. economy from a growth perspective. Finally, we conclude with an update on the latest discussions from the Federal Reserve and an overview of our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.

This month's analysis focuses on the recent trends in corporate bond spreads. We explore the implications of the narrowing spreads and what this means for the premium that investors might receive when taking on additional credit risk. Additionally, we provide an update on the current state of the U.S. economy from a growth perspective, drawing insights from the RQA economic model. Lastly, we conclude with an update on our growth and inflation quadrant analysis.

In this month's economic update, we revisit U.S. interest rate data, placing particular emphasis on the ongoing yield curve inversion. We delve into the historical occurrences of inversions and analyze the average duration of such events. Furthermore, we update our examination of leading economic indicators and the RQA economic model to gain insights into our current position in terms of near-term growth prospects.

Our latest review provides a fresh take on the current trajectory of residential real estate permits. We probe into the latest data, take a look at long term trends and how they overlap with general economic growth conditions. Moreover, we assess the leading economic indicators that are driving an upward trend in the RQA Forecast Model. Wrapping up our analysis, we contemplate the economy's current state from the perspective of growth and inflation, offering insights into the overarching economic conditions.

Our most recent analysis offers an updated perspective on the current trends in consumer sentiment. We delve into the latest data, update our forward-looking analysis, and evaluate recent consumer sentiment trends. Additionally, we examine the leading economic indicators that are influencing a positive shift in the RQA Forecast Model. Concluding our analysis, we discuss the current positioning of the economy within the growth-inflation quadrant, providing an overview of the economic landscape.

Our latest analysis focuses on interest rate expectations and the Federal Reserve's influence on short-term rates through the Federal Funds Rate, which dictates the overnight lending rate between banks. We examine recent shifts in these expectations and analyze the market's subsequent reactions. Furthermore, our analysis provides a current assessment of vital economic indicators and model outputs, shedding light on the prevailing strengths and vulnerabilities in the current economic scenario.

This month's economic analysis focuses on corporate bond spreads, their measurement, and the implications they carry for forecasting economic growth and volatility in U.S. equity markets. We delve into the dynamics of these spreads, drawing parallels to historical patterns and assessing their potential impact on predictions for economic performance. Additionally, our analysis offers an up-to-date evaluation of key economic indicators and economic model output, providing insights into the existing strengths and weaknesses within the current economic landscape.

In our latest economic analysis for this month, we explore the recent movements in interest rates across different maturity periods. We investigate this shift in light of prior occurrences of yield curve inversions and examine its potential impact on our forecast for economic performance. Furthermore, we delve into how these rate adjustments might be influencing the perspectives of Federal Reserve officials concerning the potential for future interest rate hikes. Additionally, we provide an up-to-date assessment of leading economic indicators, offering insights into areas of both strength and weakness within the current economic landscape.

In this month's economic analysis, we shift our attention to the patterns observed in a selection of commodity prices and explore their impact on both economic expansion and inflationary forces. We delve into the insights provided by the RQA Economic Model and the implications of leading indicators for short-term economic growth. Additionally, we provide an update on the recent actions and statements of the Federal Reserve and their potential implications for the direction of interest rates.

This month's economic data spotlight focuses on examining the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, also known as PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data, for both the manufacturing and services sectors. It specifically explores recent shifts in trends and the significance of variations within this data in offering valuable insights into the broader economic landscape.  We provide an update to the near-term economic forecast and touch on where we may be heading from an economic quadrant perspective.

In this July's economic data spotlight, we take a look at the Federal Funds Rate (“Fed Funds Rate”), recent changes in this key interest rate and how the market is forecasting rates going forward.  We update the economic growth model and leading economic indicator set to see where positive economic shifts are occurring.  Lastly, we explore where the economy sits  today and where we may be migrating to from a growth / inflation quadrant perspective.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the S&P 500 index and how to use it as a leading economic indicator. Moreover, we compare the latest S&P 500 signals to those being conveyed by the RQA economic model to seek insights into where the broader market might be positioning as compared to a more comprehensive compilation of leading economic data. Lastly, we review our indicator heatmap to check the temperature from the latest round of economic data and discuss the most recent actions and narrative from the Federal Reserve.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a brief look the Consumer Price Index (CPI), its short-term and long-term trends, where the U.S. sits within the inflation / deflation spectrum, and what this could mean for the current economic picture.  In addition, we get a fresh snapshot from the RQA Economic Forecast Model and check on what the leading fundamental economic data is suggesting from a growth perspective.   

RQA celebrates the one year anniversary of the fund launch of the Fairlead Tactical Sector ETF (NYSE: TACK). Fairlead Strategies, TACK’s fund manager, has been a long-time research client of RQA’s.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the common U.S. money supply measure, M2, its historical trends, and what it could be signaling with regards to overall financial liquidity conditions in the broader economy. In addition, we take a look at the output from the RQA Economic Forecast Model to get a current read on where the U.S. economy sits from a growth perspective .

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the U.S. labor market, its historical trends, some key leading drivers, and what it could be signaling for the economy in the near-to-medium term. In addition, we update the RQA Economic Forecast Model to get a current read on the growth profile (or lack thereof) of the U.S. economy.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the ISM Purchasing Managers Index (“PMI”) data for both U.S. manufacturing and services sectors. We overlay historical trends within these output measures to periods of economic growth and contraction. We also take a look at the latest growth gauge for the economy and take a glance under the hood with regards to the latest readings from the leading economic dataset to help understand where the economy sits in its current cycle.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at historical rate hike cycles, and more specifically, points in these cycles when the Fed decided to stop or even reverse their rate increases. By reviewing these “Fed pivots” in more detail, we can get a better idea of what these points in history typically meant for the outlook on the economy and future equity market returns. Additionally, as we kick off the new year, we update our set of leading indicators and Economic Forecast Model to get an updated snapshot of the U.S. economic growth profile.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we take a look at the U.S. labor market, its historical trends, some key leading drivers, and what it could be signaling for the economy in the near-to-medium term. In addition, we update the RQA Economic Forecast Model to get a current read on the growth profile (or lack thereof) of the U.S. economy.

In this RQA Economic Insight, we walkthrough a brief overview of consumer sentiment data, its historical trends, and what it may imply into today's environment. We also refresh the leading economic data set and RQA Economic Forecast Model to get a sense of where the economy sits from a growth and inflation standpoint.

In this RQA Economic Insight, the data spotlight focuses on the recent potential weakness in the U.S. real estate market as evidenced by the latest data on new residential building permits. We also take a look at the latest output from the RQA Economic Forecast Model and a variety of economic leading indicators, as we seek to get a more holistic sense of where we stand and how to be best positioned for the near-term.

In this RQA Economic Insight, the data spotlight focuses on the two primary factors under the Federal Reserve’s microscope - recent trends in U.S.-based inflation and the U.S. labor market at large. We also take a look at the latest output from the RQA Economic Forecast Model and a variety of economic leading indicators, as we seek to get a more holistic sense of where we stand and how to be best positioned for the near-term.

In this RQA Economic Insight, the data spotlight focuses on the recent Treasury yield curve inversion and what this has meant historically for the broader economy. We also take a look at the latest output from the RQA Economic Forecast Model and a variety of economic leading indicators, as we seek to get a more holistic sense of where we stand and how to be best positioned for the near-term.

In this RQA Data Insight, we take a refreshed look into the relationship between two of the most common asset allocations within traditional portfolios and how this relationship tends to shift over time. We explore what this means for traditional investment portfolios and ways to navigate new economic environments.